Who Blinked?

As awards season barrels toward us, there have been several last minute scheduling changes, and there will probably be a few more to come. "Monuments Men," the George Clooney film about a group of art historians and preservationists trying to save important cultural works during WWII, has been delayed to next year. The stated reason is that there wasn't enough time to finish the special effects. It follows on the heels of other delayed films like Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher" crime drama, and "Grace of Monaco," currently the subject of a very public spat between its director and the Harvey Weinstein, who wants to make some edits, as Harvey is wont to do.

These are only the most high profile titles that have exited the Oscar race, though. The Weinsteins are also holding back "The Railway Man" with Colin Firth and Nicole Kidman and James Gray's "The Immigrant" with Joaquin Phoenix and Marion Cotillard. Lionsgate is doing the same with the star-studded "A Most Wanted Man," based on the John le Carré nevel. Depression-era thriller "Serena" with Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper is in limbo, without a North American distributor, and it almost certainly won't be making it to screens this year. The much-debated and much-edited Weinstein version of Bong Joon-ho's "Snowpiercer" doesn't look like it's getting a 2013 U.S. release either.

To a certain extent this happens every year. The distributors strategize to maximize their award season chances, banishing weaker titles to the post-Oscar season. This time the race is particularly competitive. The Weinstein Company is handling multiple contenders including "Fruitvale Station," "Lee Daniels's The Butler," "August: Osage County," "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom," and "Philomena." They're in for a hard fight against early favorites like "12 Years a Slave," "Gravity," and "Captain Phillips." Other big upcoming titles include Alexander Payne's "Nebraska," the Coen Brothers' "Inside Llewyn Davis," David O'Russell's "American Hustle," Martin Scorsese's "The Wolf of Wall Street." And there are all kinds of potential spoilers like "Her," "Dallas Buyers' Club," "Saving Mr. Banks," "All is Lost," "Rush," and "Blue Jasmine."

The end-of-the-year deadline can also be daunting for filmmakers trying to finish complicated projects while maintaining artistic integrity. "Monuments Men" was originally slated for a December 18th release date, a very late premiere date for a major contender when early critics' awards are handed out at the beginning of that month. Most of the other titles hitting theaters around the same time, like "August: Osage County" and "Inside Llewyn Davis" had fall festival premieres much earlier in the season. The big exception is "The Wolf of Wall Street," which was delayed for a month, and there was significant speculation over whether it would pull out of the race entirely. Now it's slotted for Christmas Day, and everyone's crossing their fingers.

Now a film exiting the Oscar race doesn't necessarily spell doom and gloom. Last year "The Great Gatsby" was pushed from December to May, and it did quite well financially in summer blockbuster season. However, it is completely out of the running for serious awards contention this year, and if Leonardo DiCaprio is getting another chance at a Best Actor trophy, it'll be for "Wolf of Wall Street" and not "Gatsby." Since prestige films depend so heavily on awards buzz to fuel their marketing, more often than not the delayed films end up with much smaller releases and lower profiles, like "Girl Most Likely" or the most recent version of "Great Expectations."

Though there are always a few exceptions to the rule, but films that come out earlier in the year have worse chances at being remembered at Oscar time, and a distributor that releases a film too early is sending the signal that they don't have a real contender. "Monuments Men" has a new release date in February, 2014, which makes it very unlikely that it'll have any buzz left by the following December. The same holds true for "Grace of Monaco," which has been reshuffled to early March. Holding a film until the next awards season, like Warner Bros. did with "Gravity," is possible if they commit to it early enough, and makes for a bigger vote of confidence.

All in all, it looks like we're in for a great season. The slate is absolutely stuffed with good movies, and we're bound to have a few out-of-left field nominations like last year's "Amour." Plus, there have been some pretty resounding K.O.s already, ending the chances of "Diana," "The Fifth Estate" and "Jobs." Who knows who's going down next? And who's going to bow out before they're pushed? And is anybody going to be real competition for Cate Blanchett? I guess we can't count out Julia and Meryl, but time is running short, even though it's not even November yet.

It's a good time to love the movies.
---