The Uncertain Future of "American Idol"

I haven't watched a full season of "American Idol" since the third year, when Fantasia Barrino walked away with the title and became a Broadway mainstay. Thus, I've missed the entire judging stints of Kara DioGuardi and Ellen Degeneres, and the departures of Paula Abdul and Simon Cowell. The news has been full of chatter about who the replacements should be, and I've kept my distance. This does not mean I'm not going to get in on the idle speculation, though I'll refrain from the obvious pun.

There have been a lot of concerns about FOX's rumored negotiations with recording stars like Steven Tyler and Jennifer Lopez. First, there's no guarantee that their talent is going to translate into good judging skills. Paula Abdul, for instance, was the only one on the roster who had a professional recording career, and generally played the part of the nicer, more complimentary judge to Simon Cowell's acerbic one. Her spot shouldn't be too difficult to fill, but replacing Cowell is going to be far more difficult. Audiences loved him because he was a stand-in for the viewers, the one who had no qualms about being completely honest with the contestants, was willing to be bluntly critical, cut through the industry-speak, and didn't sugarcoat his opinions.

That's why when he opened his mouth, everyone was listening. "Idol" liked to play him up as a villain, but Cowell was the vital counterbalance to all the manufactured contrivances of "Idol." When tepid clip packages and tributes were rolled out, he often looked as bored as his audience. He rolled his eyes whenever host Ryan Seacrest laid the cheese on too thick during big reveals, and bantered with Abdul whenever she threatened to get precious. In the process, he brought a dose of authenticity to "Idol" that won't be easy to replicate, and it's more necessary than I think the show's producers realize.

It's no secret that "American Idol" is not bias-free, and the American public can be lousy at picking talent. The show is set up as a giant popularity contest, and admittedly a lot of the fun comes from seeing what boneheaded outcomes may result from unfettered democracy in action. Some of the breakout stars that have emerged from "Idol," like Oscar winner Jennifer Hudson and rocker Chris Daughtry, never came close to winning the title. Nonetheless, I think the show is a perfectly good platform for new and emerging talent. It's certainly better than the old "Star Search" contests or any of the "Idol" knock-offs.

I didn't find the format engaging enough to watch for more than two seasons, but I understand why "American Idol" remains popular and don't begrudge its success. But its relevance could go away very quickly if the show loses that small bit of legitimacy that came with Simon Cowell's glower. And I just don't see someone like Elton John or Steven Tyler or any similar celebrity bringing that quality to the table, especially when it might undercut their carefully crafted stage personae. If either of them turned out to be a snarky hard-ass in real life I wouldn't complain, but the bottom line is "American Idol" needs a Donald Trump, not a Bono.

But the Bono route seems to be the way FOX is going, and they have no one to blame but themselves for the uncertainty plaguing the series now. They waited for far too long to orchestrate the changeover, and completely failed to make use of an already existing mechanism to determine the adequacy of a new judge - the show itself. This last season of "American Idol" should have been a try-out period for potential Cowell and Degeneres replacements, and giving viewers the ability to weigh in might have helped to cancel out some of the recent ratings slump. Right now there's the risk that a new judge will fail to mesh with the format of "Idol" and end up dragging the show's fortunes even lower.

FOX is intent on adding more star power, but what they fail to realize is that "American Idol" has reached such heights in the popular consciousness, it's probably bigger than any star they could find to sign on, and star power isn't going to help if they can't nail the fundamentals of the job description. You could resurrect Michael Jackson, Josephine Baker, and Elvis for the judging panel and it wouldn't make a difference if none of them could crush the dreams of the next Lady Gaga-wannabe while staying on the right side of the audience.

This could be a chance for the show to reinvent and reinvigorate itself, but I sense tough times ahead for "Idol." The show won't be back on the airwaves until January, so until then, we'll just have to enjoy the gossip and the drama and know that somewhere, out there, Simon Cowell is enjoying the hell out of this.