How Was Your Summer at the Movies?

We've been hearing about the disappointing summer blockbuster season since early May, practically since the first weekend that "Iron Man 2" underperformed at the box office and set off a round of speculation. Industry commentators grew louder in their consternation in the following weeks, as expensive tentpole pictures collapsed left and right, including "Robin Hood" and "Prince of Persia," which was supposed to launch a new action-adventure franchise for Disney. Even smaller films like "Get Him to the Greek" failed to find much traction. It wasn't until the middle of June that we had a film that exceeded expectations, when "The Karate Kid" reboot outpaced "The A-Team."

Everybody has a theory as to why the returns have been so lackluster. Was the slow summer a self-fulfilling prophecy? Some analysts were grumbling long in advance over the lack of major franchise installments like a new "Batman" or a new "Harry Potter" to provide strong anchors for the season, though there were plenty of sequels and remakes and reboots for audiences seeking familiarity. Others complained that more traditional, male-friendly action films were MIA, though both "The A-Team" and "Predators" floundered before "The Expendables" hit the mark. Are superheroes losing their shine? Not according to "Iron Man 2," which ended up pulling comparable numbers to the first "Iron Man."

A few people brought out the quality argument, suggesting that viewers were put off, because this year's crop of films just weren't as good as the ones in years past. This is a tempting position to take, but one that ultimately doesn't hold up either. Before I explain why, I have to caution that comparing films based on quality is always a dicey proposition, because personal preferences play such a big role in these evaluations. I can only go by my own viewing experiences, so all the usual caveats about me being a pretentious, elitist, Adam Sandler-snubbing film snob apply here. However, I'll be setting aside the art house and indie titles for now, as they aren't marketed or distributed like mainstream films, and the measures of success are very different.

Let's take a look a how the summer films of 2010 measured up. So far, the ones I thought were worth the price of admission include "Toy Story 3," "Inception," "Scott Pilgrim vs. the World," "Predators," "Splice," and "Salt." I moderately enjoyed "Iron Man 2," "Shrek Forever After," and "The A-Team." "The Sorcerer's Apprentice" and "The Expendables" were notable failures, and I have no plans to see "Robin Hood," "The Last Airbender," "Eclipse," "Grown Ups," or "Sex and the City 2." Also, there are still quite a few titles that I need to catch up with like "Despicable Me," "Knight and Day," "Prince of Persia," and "The Karate Kid."

Now compare to 2009. I liked "Star Trek," "Angels & Demons," "Terminator: Salvation" "Up," "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," and "District 9." Among the disappointments were "Public Enemies," "Brüno," and "Wolverine." I expected "Night at the Museum 2" and "Ice Age 3" to be underwhelming, and they were, but I moderately enjoyed "Julie & Julia," "The Proposal," and "Inglorious Basterds." As for "G.I. Joe" and "The Hangover," the less said the better. "Transformers 2," "Land of the Lost," "Year One," and "Funny People"? I can wait for those to hit basic cable or simply ignore the fact that they exist.

There isn't much difference here in the proportion of good and bad films. However, there are some major differences when you start comparing the budgets and box office totals. All the summer films I really enjoyed in 2009 were big tentpole pictures that did well at the box office and were largely expected to do well. "District 9" was a surprise hit, but one that was made for so little money, it would have earned profits regardless. This year is very different. Half of the films I liked were modestly budgeted pictures that bombed at the box office regardless - "Splice," "Scott Pilgrim," and "Predators" - while there was considerable uncertainty about the money-making potential of "Inception" and "Salt" a few months ago.

Notably missing are the more traditional big-budget spectaculars like the Jerry Bruckheimer movies and franchise flicks, films considered sure bets by the studios, which is why they get those bigger production budgets. Four of my 2009 favorites were sequels or reboots from big franchises, while there was only one that made my 2010 list, "Toy Story 3." ("Predators" was more throwback than sequel.) This matches what happened at the box office, where the cost of a film and the size of its advertising push turned out to have no correlation to how well it actually performed. We always have a big flop or two every year - "Speed Racer" in 2008, and "Land of the Lost" in 2009 - but this time there were at least half a dozen major would-be blockbusters that failed to connect with their intended audiences, and at least as many mid-size flops too.

This bumpy summer movie season is really due to the unpredictability of the summer audiences, not across-the-board failures. I think that's what has Hollywood spooked. Industry expectations were the greatest casualty here. Sequels did not outperform their previous franchise installments. 3D surcharges did not rescue such ill-conceived projects as "The Last Airbender." Massive hype and marketing dollars did not translate into bigger box office receipts. And some of the most dependable filmmakers like Jerry Bruckheimer were shunned, while Sylvester Stallone is having his best showing in ages. All the conventional wisdom about how audiences should behave has gone right out the window.

It's almost impossible to point to any emerging trends being responsible. Are audiences seeking out smarter material? "Inception" was the film of the summer, but viewers also flocked to "The Expendables," "Grown Ups" and "Vampires Suck." Are female filmgoers gaining power and influence? "Sex and the City 2" and "The Switch" crashed while "Eclipse" and "Eat, Pray, Love" hit the jackpot. Do viewers want more originality? What even counts as originality anymore? Mixed messages abound, leaving no easy answers. The only films that have performed consistently well have been the animated ones, suggesting that family films may be getting a lot more love in the future while geek-centric cinema is on its way out the door.

If I have to single out any one factor for exacerbating this situation, though, I'd have to go with a very basic, commonly overlooked element that has nothing to do with the content of the films: the marketing. Never have I seen a year of worse movie trailers and ads - generic, bland, dull, and unoriginal. Some were too niche, like the ones for "Scott Pilgrim," some were too broad, like the "Prince of Persia" trailers that tried to draw in everybody, but attracted nobody, and some were just plain terrible, like the ads for "The Expendables," that were outdone by a lone mash-up artist on Youtube. It may be telling that I can't think of any notable ads for this year's box office bombs.

Good ad campaigns are still worth the money, and this year they helped "The Last Airbender" recoup most of its budget, despite one of the worst critical drubbings all year, and ensured that discerning audiences gave "Inception" a chance. In a lot of cases, I suspect good films were overlooked because they weren't properly marketed. It only felt like the quality dipped this summer because nobody seemed to be watching the good stuff. There's no excuse for a solid action film like "Predators" failing to find an audience while dreck like "The Expendables" is rolling in dough. Word of mouth can save the day, but it usually needs a lot of help.

In the end, I had a good summer - as good as any other summer anyway - and I look forward to the fall and beyond. But as I predicted back in May, a lot of the fun just came from watching the box office returns roll in and seeing Hollywood lose its mind over the numbers every week. Next year should be more predictable, with a glut of familiar titles like "Harry Potter," "Transformers," "X-Men," and "Pirates of the Caribbean" coming our way. But I prefer a year like this, where at least there's more of a chance for surprises.

Until next time!