I am traditionally extremely bad at this, but I still have fun trying to guess how well the summer movies are going to do at the box office every year for the Summer Movie Wager. Following the rules of the Summer Movie Pool, I'm going to predict the top ten domestic box office grossers of the season. It's not about which movies are the best or the most deserving, but which ones simply bring in the most cold hard cash. Anything released between May 1st and Labor Day is fair game. Here we go.
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day - The MCU has been having a rough time at the box office lately, but Spider-man is a marquee hero that is a franchise in and of himself. We also haven't seen Tom Holland's Spidey onscreen since 2021, so this is definitely going to be an event. I'm doing my best to steer clear of spoilers, but the new additions are promising, and the news of certain existing characters from the MCU making appearances in this film are even more promising.
2. Moana - After "Lilo and Stitch" topped the summer box office last year, it's clear that the "Moana" remake has a massive potential audience. It's only been a decade since the animated film, but "Moana" has consistently been a favorite on streaming, and Dwayne Johnson isn't getting any younger. My only concern is that "Moana 2" wasn't very well liked, despite making so much money. However, the Disney marketing machine will be going full force for this one.
3. The Odyssey - This is where I'm putting Christopher Nolan and Universal's massive gamble on a sword and sandals epic. Never mind that Matt Damon hasn't had a hit in a long time, or that there have been complaints about the costuming and cinematography. Nolan is going to ensure that this one is an event, and so many stars are crammed into the film that we're inevitably going to be hearing about it all summer long. Do I think it will be good? Does that matter?
4. Minions & Monsters - Illumination's The "Despicable Me" franchise has traditionally done very well with young audiences, with the last three films all earning in the $300 million range domestically. In a weaker year this would be higher up in the rankings, but I think that the competition is good enough that a new Minions movie won't be a top priority for most viewers. I am curious as to whether the Gentleminions will make their return, however, after making a splash in 2022.
5. The Devil Wears Prada 2 - This is my riskiest bet, but women's films have a long history of surprising at the box office, and when it comes to Millennial nostalgia, few movies of this era are as iconic in pop culture as the original "The Devil Wears Prada." There are already a ton of takes on the fashion glimpsed in the trailers, and the extraordinary cast list. Is Anne Hathaway going to become overexposed this year? Absolutely, but it'll be a fun trip getting there.
6. Toy Story 5 - Ignoring the "Lightyear" flop, this should be higher up in the list, because "Toy Story" generally outperforms "Despicable Me" domestically, even with the long breaks. There's also been an excellent teaser trailer with a great hook - toys versus screens! However, my instinct is to be cautious after the audience's reception to PIXAR's last few films. I'm not counting Woody and Buzz out completely, but I think they have an uphill battle.
7. The Mandalorian and Grogu - It is very tough to tell what the audience appetite is for more "Star Wars" at this point, but I think there's enough goodwill toward "The Mandalorian" specifically that this should be a modest hit, leaning toward younger audiences. I'm still seeing plenty of kids with Grogu merchandise. However, I don't think it'll be a bigger hit without something more exciting to show than Jeremy Allen White playing a new Hutt villain.
8. Backrooms - I'm guessing this is going to be the big breakout horror film this year. It's based on a viral internet creepypasta and subsequent short film that garnered a huge amount of attention. It's easily got the most hype out of any other horror title this year, especially among younger audiences, and is almost certainly going to make money. However, I doubt it'll be enough of a crossover hit to make it very high in the rankings, so I'm putting it in eighth.
9. Disclosure Day - We are long past the days of Steven Spielberg movies automatically being blockbuster gold. However, there are occasionally films for older audiences that manage to break into the top ten list, and that's what I think "Disclosure Day" might do if it gets the right reception. The lack of big stars and Spielberg's diminished presence over the last few years isn't helping any, but I'll always look forward to a new Spielberg movie about aliens.
10. Supergirl - I really, really want this to do well, but looking at the recent track record of woman-led superhero films and DC films, this is where I have to put "Supergirl." Maybe Jason Momoa's Lobo will raise some interest, and maybe the reviews will turn some heads, but right now I don't see how the math works out. Frankly, it's a win that this movie got made to begin with, and it's my most anticipated big-budget film of the summer by far.
Wild Cards (for extra points if one of them does make it into the top ten)
Masters of the Universe
Scary Movie 6
Mortal Kombat II
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