Following the rules of the Summer Movie Pool, I'm going to predict the top ten domestic box office grossers of the summer. It's not about which movies are the best or the most deserving, but which ones simply bring in the most cold hard cash.
I am always notoriously bad at this, but I'm committed to making an honest effort. Last year I scored 38 out of a possible 100 points, which is terrible and about average for me. Anything released between May 1st and Labor Day is fair game. Here we go.
1. Superman - I love the trailer with Krypto coming to the rescue. I love the casting and the color palette and James Gunn's commitment to a hopeful version of Superman again. However, the reason I think that "Superman" is going to win the superhero wars this year comes down to name recognition. Unlike the Marvel offerings this summer, Superman is a known and proven marquee star. People who don't watch modern superhero movies will still turn out for Superman.
2. Lilo & Stitch - I expect that this is going to be the global winner at the box office this summer, because when the Disney live action remakes do well, they tend to do very well. "Lilo & Stitch" has quietly been one of Disney's most enduring animated franchises over the past twenty years, with sequels and spinoffs filling out Disney programming lineups for much of the 2000s. Stitch also remains a popular character, and the "live action" version should attract plenty of family audiences.
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps - The last few in-continuity MCU films didn't do very well. I'm betting that "Fantastic Four" being an origin story should help this one stand out and stand apart from the rest of the Marvel universe. It's been long enough that not many will remember the previous "Fantastic Four" flops either. Also, considering the importance of the film to the future of the MCU, Disney is going to be putting the full force of their marketing power behind this one.
4. Thunderbolts* - This one could do bigger numbers considering its early May release date, but I think "Thunderbolts*" comes with the disadvantage that none of its characters have been headliners so far. Maybe Bucky is the exception, though he's not as prominent in the trailers as he should be. Trying to remember what character came from which MCU property feels like homework. I suspect the actual movie will bea ton of fun - the trouble is getting people in the door.
5. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning - Now, "Dead Reckoning" underperformed, so the title was changed to something more interesting. This is probably not going to be the last "Mission: Impossible" movie, but I think enough people will think that this is the last "Mission: Impossible" movie to boost the box office considerably. Personally, I'm not really looking forward to anything "Mission: Impossible" anymore, but Tom Cruise has a very good track record of franchise resurrections.
6. Jurassic World Rebirth - Speaking of franchise resurrections, it's an unfortunate fact that no matter how bad the "Jurassic Park" movies get, they reliably make ridiculous amounts of money. Nobody liked "Jurassic World Dominion" and it still made a billion dollars worldwide. Domestic numbers are a different story, but they're still high enough. With Scarlett Johanssen and Mahershala Ali starring, I have no reason to think the response will be any different for "Jurassic World Rebirth."
7. How to Train Your Dragon - Universal is trying out the live action remake of a beloved animated film trick that Disney is so good at, and it's probably going to work. I don't think "How to Train Your Dragon" is quite as popular as "Lilo and Stitch," but it's popular enough that the remake should be very lucrative. Keeping Toothless and the other dragons almost identical to their original animated counterparts is going to go a long way toward getting nostalgic Gen Zers to buy tickets.
8. Elio - I have no idea how any specific PIXAR movie is going to do anymore, but "Elio" is the original property with the strongest shot at breaking into the top ten this summer. There is absolutely an audience for this movie, and the question will really be whether it's going to get crowded out by all the other movies aimed at kids and families this year. I'm betting that it's going to be a sleeper hit like PIXAR's "Elemental."
9. The Bad Guys 2 - The original "Bad Guys" made some decent money as a COVID era release, but I don't know how much this franchise has actually caught on with its young target audience. I think it's going to do well, but I'm not sure how well in a summer that's this crowded.
10. 28 Years Later - Finally, there are a lot of horror options this summer, but only one that I'd call a proper event film. Yes, Danny Boyle is back with the long-awaited third installment of the "28 Days Later" franchise. Zombie media is on the wane, but never count out nostalgia.
Wild Cards (for extra points if one of them does make it into the top ten)
M3GAN 2.0
The Conjuring Last Rites
Ballerina
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