Thanks to last year's WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there have been a ton of delayed films, and the summer movie slate is as bare as it was during the pandemic. Still, that doesn't necessarily mean I'm going to do any better at guessing which ones are going to make the most money. Following the rules of the Summer Movie Pool, I'm predicting the top ten domestic summer box office grossers of 2024. I am notoriously bad at this game, but I still have a lot of fun with it every year. I enjoy the chance to play box office prognosticator, and to hype myself up for summer movie season.
And if last year was any indication, there's plenty of room for surprises. Anything released between May 1st and Labor Day is fair game. And here we go.
1. Despicable Me 4 - Frankly, I don't understand the appeal, but the "Despicable Me" franchise has been a very consistent moneymaker and my guess is that the latest adventures of Gru and family will attract their usual family audience. Maybe the "gentleminions" will also make a triumphant return to theaters. Online hype is clearly becoming a force that contributes to box office success, but it's very difficult to predict. In any case, of all the family films competing this year, "Despicable Me" is an easy winner. Viewers know exactly what they're getting by now, and they don't show signs of getting tired of it yet.
2. Deadpool & Wolverine - After the genre essentially collapsed in 2023, the summer season is weirdly superhero free. "Deadpool & Wolverine" is the only exception, the lone MCU film of the year. Well, I'd be more inclined to characterize it as the last Fox X-men universe film, but let's not split hairs. Hugh Jackman coming back to play Wolverine should attract some interest, and any remaining superhero goodwill will be concentrated here. I expect that should be enough to overcome the film's reported R-rating. In another year this would be much farther down the list, but the "Deadpool" films consistently made a certain amount of money, and no competition this year that may be enough to push it pretty high on the charts.
3. The Fall Guy - In the absence of the superheroes, I'm placing my chips on a star-led action movie about a stunt guy that is being directed by former stunt guy David Leitch. Ryan Gosling has really made a case for himself as a leading man, but he rarely seems interested in being one. Post-"Barbie," however, he really has a chance to cement himself as an A-lister. It's a little strange that this is technically an extremely late reboot of a Lee Majors 1980s television show that nobody remembers anymore, but there have been wilder leaps. I am, after all, talking about Ryan Gosling's post-"Barbie" career.
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga - Everybody loves "Mad Max: Fury Road" but the trouble is that "Mad Max: Fury Road" didn't actually make that much money. And while the whole creative team is back, including director George Miller, this is a prequel with an almost entirely different cast, led by Anya Taylor Joy and Chris Hemsworth. Warners is putting it in the Memorial Day slot, so clearly they have some hope for it, but I think this will be a tougher sell than "Mad Max" fans realize. Still, if this is as good as I think it's going to be, it'll get some repeat business and hopefully stick around in theaters for a while.
5. Inside Out 2 - PIXAR has had some rough years, and "Inside Out" might initially seem like an odd choice for a sequel, but the original was one of their better performers and did well with critics. Frankly, I'm a little wary of this franchise wading into Riley's adolescence, but I trust PIXAR to handle it with all the sensitivity and creativity that they're known for. The real question is whether audiences will turn out to see it. "Lightyear was a bust and "Elemental" barely squeaked out a win. My guess is "Inside Out 2" will do a little better, but not that much better. So it goes into the middle of the pack.
6. Twisters - The Superbowl trailer pushed this way up higher than I originally had it. Glenn Powell is surely headed for A list status after "Anyone But You," and with "The Hitman" coming up. I have no idea if Lee Isaac Chung will be able to pull off a disaster movie (good grief, what a wild follow-up to "Minari"), but watching Powell, Daisy Edgar Jones, and Anthony Ramos trading quips and running around in bad weather sounds like good, stupid summer movie fun to me. And lest we forget, the original "Twister" was the second highest grossing film of 1996, right behind "Independence Day"!
7. The Garfield Movie - I don't really know what to make of this one. "The Garfield Movie" is a new animated film based on the Garfield character, helmed by animation great Mark Dindal. I was not impressed by the trailers, but the colors are bright, baby Garfield is cute, and kids will surely be amused by all the CGI gluttony. DNEG Animation, which made last year's "Nimona," is handling the animation, which looks perfectly fine. But seriously, why is every major animated character being voiced by Chris Pratt now? We couldn't find anyone with a better Bill Murray impersonation?
8. Bad Boys 4 - "Bad Boys For Life" was a surprise hit at the box office in early 2020, before the pandemic and before the Oscars slap heard around the world. Will Smith clearly doesn't have anything better to do, so everyone's back for another round of buddy cop action shenanigans. I don't see much else on the schedule for the black audience, so I'm betting that a "Bad Boys" installment will do well, especially since one of the directors promised something lighter and funnier than the last one. I mean, the "Fast" audience has to watch something while that franchise is cooling its heels.
9. Borderlands - This one is following in the footsteps of the the original "Guardians of the Galaxy," both in tone and with an early August release date. I don't know anything about the game franchise this is based on, and Eli Roth's track record is deeply troubling to me. However, the sight of Cate Blanchett and Jamie Lee Curtis as badass space outlaws, blasting enemies with such gleeful abandon, is impossible for me not to root for. I'm expecting many others will have a similar reaction and give this one a try. I mean, it's got Jack Black as a robot! I gotta give it a shot!
10. IF - Here's where I'm really in uncharted territory. Krasinski has never made this kind of film before and live action family movies have had a really mixed track record lately. However, Ryan Reynolds is the closest thing we have to a dependable leading man and audiences have seemed more receptive to original premises lately. It's also releasing early enough in the summer that it could rack up enough ticket sales to make it into the top ten by Labor Day. On the other hand, a wannabe PIXAR film releasing when actual PIXAR films aren't doing well is a big risk.
Wild Cards (for extra points if one of them does make it into the top ten)
Horizon: An American Saga
A Quiet Place: Day One
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
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