I did really badly at the Summer Movie Wager last year, despite there hardly being any movies to list. This year, however, the box office is going to see a boost, as we're likely to see some real competition, and hopefully some surprises. Following the rules of the Summer Movie Pool, I'm going to predict the top ten domestic box office grossers of the summer. It's not about which movies are the best or the most deserving, but which ones simply bring in the most cold hard cash. Anything released between May 1st and Labor Day is fair game. Here we go.
1. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part I - I will not underestimate the drawing power of Tom Cruise again. After what he pulled off with "Top Gun: Maverick," I don't think that there's anyone who would bet against him. This will be the seventh entry in the "Mission Impossible" series, which feels like it should be more of an ensemble so that Cruise can pass the torch eventually, but that doesn't seem to be happening. And as long as Cruise keeps going, that's not going to be a problem.
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - I may not be that fond of the "Guardians" movies, but they're big crowd pleasers and this is likely going to be the biggest Marvel Cinematic Universe release this year. It'll also serve as James Gunn's goodbye to the MCU, and this set of characters. I'm sure we'll see more of the Guardians crew in other contexts, but of course it won't be the same. "Vol 3." was delayed several years thanks to Gunn's temporary firing and COVID troubles, and I'm glad to see it finally released.
3. Fast X - I really have to fight my instincts with this one, because I've tired of the "Fast" franchise over the past few films, but I don't think that most other filmgoers have. You might have heard some of the production drama involving the original director, Justin Lin, quitting suddenly, and being replaced by Louis Leterrier. Jason Momoa is joining the cast as the new baddie, along with Brie Larson as a new ally and Rita Moreno as, I kid you not, Abuelita Toretto. Yes, Dominic Toretto is getting an abuelita.
4. The Flash - It might be another superhero's name on the movie, but this one is going to be all about the return of the Michael Keaton Batman to our screens after more than two decades. There's been all kinds of chaos going on behind the scenes with Warners and the criminal career of leading man Ezra Miller, but that can also be viewed as a positive. Everyone has been hearing about this film for years, and it's more in the public consciousness than most of the other upcoming superhero films.
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - I'd usually put a kids' movie up pretty high on the list, but since COVID younger audiences have been slower to return to movie theaters. Plenty of animated films have done well over the past year, but not as well as they have in the past. With that in mind, I'm guessing that general audiences will give a boost to a familiar "Spider-man" feature, so "Spider-verse" sequel has a good shot at being a crossover hit. The first film was such a fantastic surprise, so I'm crossing my fingers.
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - I'm worried about this, honestly. As much as I love the idea of a new "Indiana Jones" movie, Harrison Ford is way too old to be leading this kind of action movie, and after "Crystal Skull" I don't think Spielberg has it in him to be making this kind of action movie anymore either. For old time's sake it'll probably still attract enough viewers to make a decent showing at the box office, but "Mission Impossible" will come out a week later and it's not going to be pretty.
7. The Little Mermaid - "The Little Mermaid" is going to do well because all of Disney's live action remakes of their Renaissance era animated musicals have done well, no matter how bad the finished product turned out to be. I'm sure that the culture war furor over the casting of Halle Bailey is going to make an impact, but not as much as people think. Still, there are some decent alternatives for female audiences this summer, so I'm putting this lower in the rankings than its predecessors.
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - I wrestled with where to put this. "Transformers" has made a ton of money in the past, but we're looking at a semi-reboot without a star in the lead (sorry Anthony Ramos). Nostalgia also won't be as potent, since we're moving on to the "Beast Wars" material that was less well known. The "Bumblebee" spinoff didn't do as well as the earlier "Transformers" films despite easily being the best one, so who knows how audiences will take this one?
9. Oppenheimer - Finally, we have the great "Oppenheimer" vs. "Barbie" showdown of July. I've come down on the side of encouraging the rivalry (to a point), because the increased publicity can only be good for both films, no matter which one winds up on top. Christopher Nolan has the better track record with big budget fare, so even though this is a biopic aimed at more mature audiences, I have to give the edge to "Oppenheimer."
10. Barbie - The rampant online memes may not translate into actual ticket sales, but I'm willing to bet that "Barbie" will appeal to the same crowd that turned "Pitch Perfect 2" and "Sex and the City" into sizable hits. This is one of my most anticipated films of this year, because of the involvement of Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, and so far the marketing hasn't hit a wrong note. It won't be massive, but I think it'll make the Top Ten.
Wild Cards (for extra points if one of them does make it into the top ten)
Elemental
Insidious: Fear the Dark
Blue Beetle
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