Netflix cancelled "The Santa Clarita Diet" and a few other underperforming shows. Amazon Prime has been pulling indie films out of rotation. "Game of Thrones" and "The Big Bang Theory" are over, and there are no obvious replacements in sight. There are still some massively ambitious projects on the horizon, like "The Mandalorian" and the "Lord of the Rings" series, but it feels like the crazy momentum behind television series production has started slowing down.
We've been living in the era of Peak TV for a while now. 495 scripted series were aired or streamed in 2018, a slight increase from the 487 in 2017. By contrast, there were 216 scripted shows in 2010. Online platforms are responsible for most of the deluge, currently producing over half of these shows. However, cable output has also increased significantly. The numbers are expected to climb further with the introduction of more streaming services like Disney+ and Apple TV, defying earlier predictions that the bubble was due to pop. However, the expansion seems to be slowing.
As I've previously opined on this blog, Peak TV has brought us some wonderful things. We get new content year round. Shows have been allowed to become more niche and idiosyncratic, with their creatives enjoying far more creative freedom than they would have in the past. The quality of shows in general has massively improved, even though there are plenty of stinkers. I'm constantly inundated with recommendations for interesting shows that I have to reluctantly pass up on watching, because I'm already watching too many others. Someday I'll get around to "Barry." Someday.
Even better, the industry has seen a positive transformation as it has left the monoculture behind, making efforts to diversify. There's still a long way to go, but women and minorities are making significant gains in representation, both onscreen and off. Last year, I mentioned that it was the first time I ever remembered seeing programming that seemed tailor made for me - an Asian American woman over thirty. "Fresh Off the Boat," has been on the air for five seasons, the longest any Asian-American-centric show has ever run on American television. The sixth, with or without Constance Wu, will be due next year, along with more "Kim's Convenience" and "Killing Eve."
On the other hand, the volatility of the media ecosystem is definitely taking a toll. AT&T's takeover of HBO threatens one of the most reliable producers of high quality, curated content of the past three decades, one that is arguably responsible of the rise of Peak TV in the first place. There have been warning signs that the broadcast networks are steadily approaching oblivion as their audiences erode, and basic cable is also feeling the pinch. Transitioning from broadcast to streaming platforms has its advantages, but the overwhelming majority of the major ones so far are subscription services, and a big chunk of the population still relies on more traditional platforms.
Netflix remains an interesting conundrum. (Quick disclosure - I'm still a shareholder.) They've successfully disrupted the television business and have shown that they're going to be around for the long haul. However, their refusal to share their viewership numbers also makes meaningful analysis of their actual impact difficult, and their antagonism of the major studios has seemingly locked in their outsider status for the time being. They seem to be constantly in the conversation, having had a very successful awards season and their share of buzzworthy hits. On the other hand, I'm constantly hearing about their disappointments too. How long can they hold on to their status as the default streaming service?
Most of the latest round of speculation about the health of Netflix is directly tied to their new willingness to cancel shows. Where every decent performer seemed bulletproof a year ago, now all the adult Marvel show are on their way out, the critically lauded "One Day at a Time" is kaput, and everyone is nervously eyeing any show that's run longer than three seasons. Over at Amazon, several of its flagship shows like "Mozart in the Jungle" and "Transparent" have gotten the axe, and "Man in the High Castle" is on its last year. This is supposedly part of a housecleaning effort after their regime change.
On the other hand, maybe this is just a normal programing cycle coming to an end in the streaming world - it's hard to tell because we haven't really had many of them yet. It's hard to believe it's only been six years since "House of Cards" premiered on Netflix and kicked off the streaming wars. What's "normal" is still very much in flux. However, with the new services coming in, and the earliest batch of shows almost all gone, it feels like the end of an era. And we still have a long way to go.
Hang on tight everybody. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
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