Roughly a year ago, Disney's release schedule for 2019 looked like this:
“Captain Marvel” (3D) — Mar. 8, 2019
“Dumbo” (3D) — Mar. 29, 2019
Untitled Disneytoon Studios — April 12, 2019
Untitled “Avengers” (3D) — May 3, 2019
“Aladdin” (3D) — May 24, 2019
“Toy Story 4” — June 21, 2019
“The Lion King” (3D) — July 19, 2019
“Artemis Fowl” (3D) — Aug. 9, 2019
“Nicole” — Nov. 8, 2019
“Frozen 2” — Nov. 27, 2019
“Star Wars: Episode IX” (3D) — Dec. 20, 2019
There have only been a few changes. Disneytoon Studios has been shut down and their project cancelled. The Anna Kendrick Christmas movie "Nicole" is now "Noelle" and set to premiere on Disney's new streaming service along with "Magic Camp," which was pulled from the 2018 release slate and replaced with "Christopher Robin." There's also been a notable addition. Last December, Sony announced the "Spider-man" sequel, "Far From Home," would be released July 5th. So now, the schedule looks like this:
“Captain Marvel” (3D) — Mar. 8, 2019
“Dumbo” (3D) — Mar. 29, 2019
“Avengers 4” (3D) — May 3, 2019
“Aladdin” (3D) — May 24, 2019
“Toy Story 4” — June 21, 2019
"Spider-Man: Far From Home" - July 5, 2019
“The Lion King” (3D) — July 19, 2019
“Artemis Fowl” (3D) — Aug. 9, 2019
“Frozen 2” — Nov. 27, 2019
“Star Wars: Episode IX” (3D) — Dec. 20, 2019
Now the summer is even more crowded with big titles, none of which appear to be budging. I'd assumed that the live action "Aladdin" or "The Lion King" might be delayed to space out the releases more, but there's no indication that this is happening. I can still see "Avengers" being bumped up to April, though, to match the release pattern of the last installment.
Last time around, I thought that the schedule was massively overloaded and the movies were doomed to cannibalize each other. Right now, I'm dead sure that this is going to happen, especially after how Disney's slate performed in 2018. They released four tentpoles over the summer, "Avengers: Infinity War," "Solo," "Incredibles 2," and "Ant-Man and the Wasp." "Solo" significantly underperformed, for reasons that remain much debated, but part of the problem seems to be that it came out too soon after "The Last Jedi," and had a lot of bad press and bad buzz around it.
Now, if "Aladdin" and "The Lion King" can differentiate themselves enough from each other, maybe they can both make money. I'm not counting on it though - I expect "Aladdin" will be the likeliest loser in the group, with few major stars and the highly hit-or-miss Guy Ritchie at the helm. It's got essentially the same slot on the calendar as "Solo," which is not a good sign. There have also been a few rumblings of discontent related to the cultural sensitivity of the production - nothing major, but worth keeping an eye on. From the bits of marketing released so far, this thing is going to live or die with Will Smith's ability to sell the Genie. Twenty years ago, no sweat, but today?
Now keep in mind that I want "Aladdin," "The Lion King," and 2020's "Mulan" to do well, because Disney is trying socially-conscious casting and some other interesting things here. These aren't going to be carbon copies of the animated films the way that "Beauty and the Beast" unfortunately turned out. However, Disney is not doing themselves any favors jamming so many of these titles together into the same few months. Tim Burton's live action "Dumbo" will also be coming out in March, remember. That's the one I'm actually the most skeptical about. (Why is this move written by schlockmeister Ehren Kruger and starring Colin Farrell?!)
And we might as well start prepping for Disney's equally crowded 2020 too, where we have to factor Fox's releases in. Here's the slate so far:
Untitled Disney live-action film - February 14, 2020
Untitled Pixar film - March 6, 2020
"Mulan," - March 27, 2020
Untitled Marvel Studios film - May 1, 2020
"Maleficent II" - May 29, 2020
Untitled Pixar film - June 19, 2020
Untitled Marvel / Fox film - June 26, 2020
Untitled Marvel Studios film - July 31, 2020
Untitled Marvel / Fox film - October 2, 2020
Untitled Disney live-action film - October 9, 2020
Untitled Marvel Studios film - November 6, 2020
Untitled Disney animated film - November 25, 2020
Untitled Disney live-action film - December 23, 2020
Hmmm…. They're being awfully tight-lipped compared to last year.
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