The Sleepers of December

Something interesting has been going on at the box office lately. Between Thanksgiving and now, we've had the rare situation where not a single new film has opened that has managed to crack the top five. This means two weeks where the newcomers, including "Killing Them Softly," and "Playing for Keeps" have failed to make a dent, which has given some of the slower Thanksgiving releases some room to grow. The biggest sleeper hit of the season so far has been Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln." It has consistently held third place for almost a solid month, and it's about to cross the $100 million threshold domestically. However, two other films have gotten the most benefit from the lighter competition: Dreamworks Animation's "Rise of the Guardians" and 20th Century Fox's "Life of Pi."

"Guardians" and "Pi" opened in fourth and fifth place respectively on Thanksgiving weekend with a little over $30 million apiece. This was considered a triumph for "Pi," a risky $120 million prestige picture, and a disaster for "Guardians," which cost $145 million and had been expected to bring in a first weekend amount closer to $50 million. However, in the following weeks, both films started creeping up in the standings, suffering much smaller dropoffs than the two big blockbusters at the top of the chart, "Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2" and "Skyfall." "Life of Pi" remained in fifth place in its next two weekends, but during the week it was frequently.in third or fourth place. This past Tuesday, it pulled ahead of "Twilight" and "Lincoln" to come in second. "Rise of the Guardians" saw the opposite happen. It held steady fifth place rankings during the week, but it moved up to a third place weekend at the beginning of December, and then up to second place last weekend.

The press has largely written off both films as flops, but currently both "Guardians" and "Pi" have each made slightly over $63 million each domestically, and they've displayed enough holding power that they're expected to hang around in theaters for several more weeks, pushing those totals higher. In a more competitive season like summer, with big films coming out every week, this wouldn't have been possible, but December traditionally has some lulls that give these slow-burners a chance. "Guardians" is the only Christmas-themed movie in sight, and there's been a dearth of kids' films this season. "Pi" has racked up enough buzz that it looks like it's going to be in contention for some major awards at Oscar time, which could push its profile higher and attract more attention. Neither film is expected to hit $100 million in the end, but they might get close. They'll still both be bombs, but if they're lucky, they can avoid being major embarrassments.

The foreign numbers ought to help there. Currently "Rise of the Guardians" and "Life of Pi" are first and second at the worldwide box office, and have made $90 million and $100 million apiece so far. It's small potatoes compared to the numbers that the big franchises were doing earlier in the month, but good enough that total grosses should cover both films' budgets. "Life of Pi" was always expected to play better internationally, which is why FOX wasn't that concerned about the domestic receipts. It's been doing particularly well in Asia. "Rise of the Guardians," however, was a little trickier to gauge. It's a holiday themed film, and those don't always translate very well overseas - see "Hop" and "Arthur Christmas," for example. Instead, "Guardians" is doing very well globally, and it's a mystery why it failed to connect in the U.S. I wasn't thrilled with "Guardians," but I found it more appealing than a lot of the CGI kids' films that have outperformed it.

2012 has been quite a year for bombs, including "John Carter," "Cloud Atlas," and "Battleship." However, it's also been a good year for sleepers, including "Magic Mike," "Argo," and "Flight." "Rise of the Guardians" and "Life of Pi" look like they might end up fitting both categories. They cost too much to make a profit, but they're doing well enough that you can't really dismiss them as total failures either. They don't fit into the usual analyst models for box office performance, which emphasizes first week returns above all else. However, I think the sleepers and slow-burn pictures might become more prevalent, as studio slates are shrinking and we're starting to see the number of films being made each year decrease. This is giving the smaller and overlooked films more of a chance to make an impact.

Of course there are always going to be the gigantic behemoths like "The Hobbit," which is expected to dominate this weekend. But you have to have films in third and fourth and fifth place, and the ones that can hang in there for a couple of weeks and attract an audience, deserve some attention too.
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