It's Too Early for Your Oscar Predictions

The way the entertainment reporters are buzzing about Oscar nominations right now, you'd think were were only a week or two away from the announcement of this year's ten nominees for Best Picture. Instead, we're well over three months away form the end of the year and most of the prestige pictures have yet to see the light of day. Yet if you believe the early prognosticators, over half of the slots are spoken for already. The summer hits "The Kids Are All Right," "Inception," and "Toy Story 3" have been cited everywhere as locks for nominations, mostly because they're the only films that came out in the first three-quarters of the year that critics largely agree have a decent shot at industry recognition. "Winter's Bone" also gets mentioned as a potential dark horse if it can get enough buzz behind it. Those pictures I can understand the speculation for, since their theatrical releases have come and gone, and there's been enough positive critical and audience consensus to cement them as serious contenders.

The rest of the hopefuls are being singled out due to recent premieres and screenings at the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride film festivals. Depending on which critics you want to believe, Darren Aronofsky's "Black Swan," David Fincher's "The Social Network," Tom Hooper's "The King's Speech," Danny Boyle's "127 Hours," Sofia Coppola's "Somewhere," and Mike Leigh's "Another Year" are already frontrunners. And this isn't even getting into some potential heavy hitters that nobody has seen yet like the Coens brothers' "True Grit" remake with Jeff Bridges, and David O'Rusell's "The Fighter." Plus, if Oscar history has told us anything, an early favorite like "Dreamgirls" always gets snubbed and there's usually an upset or two by popular films like "The Blind Side" and "Avatar" managed last year. So I'm not writing off "TRON Legacy" until someone actually sees the movie, oversells it, and sets off the inevitable backlash.

I understand why the early Oscar talk happens. It's part of any prestige picture's marketing to be in contention for major film awards. An analyst trying to gauge how well a film will perform in theaters has to take into account the potential boost from the industry's yearly bout of kudomania. A Best Picture Oscar doesn't always translate into box office returns, as "The Hurt Locker" found out the hard way, but it does ensure a certain level of visibility. Now that the Academy has expanded the field of Best Picture nominees from five slots to ten, exponentially more titles can be seriously considered for the top prize. Ironically with the financing for most independent films drying up, there are fewer contenders than there might have been in earlier years, but that doesn't mean the 2011 Oscar race is going to be any less contentious or dramatic. The fact that we're hearing this much chatter this far in advance all but guarantees that we're in for a longer, tougher slog this year.

Now, I enjoy the Oscar race. It's my equivalent of the NFL playoffs, with the Academy Awards as the Superbowl for cinema snobs. I'm well aware of how lousy the awards are as a barometer of quality, and all the distasteful politicking that often goes on behind the scenes. Still, its a fascinating thing to observe all the various Hollywood players - the studios, the talent, the critics, and yes, even the audience - affect how the race is run and who ultimately goes home with the little golden man. Plus, it's always nice to have an excuse to talk about movies and the people who make movies, even if it's for the purposes of reaffirming the Hollywood pecking order. But to see so many people compiling serious lists of Oscar hopefuls in the middle of September strikes me as awfully premature. There are always the woolgathering early birds who will trot out lists midyear or even earlier, but the vibe is different with this latest round.

There's already the beginnings of marketing push behind some of the newly anointed frontrunners, and signs of critics starting to choose sides and declare allegiances. Maybe this happens every year and I'm finally noticing the preliminary maneuvering, but it all seems to be happening a lot earlier than it has in the past, and initial predictions are being taken more seriously. I'm a little worried that by the time December rolls around, the later arrivals are going to suffer from Oscar voters either having already made up their minds, or being so worn out from the campaigning process that they're less receptive to those smaller, less flashy films that are in greater danger of being overlooked. And conversely, hyping up "The Black Swan" or "The Social Network" too early might be counterproductive with Oscar night more than four months away.

The culprits for the early onset of the awards season are easy to spot: a blogosphere with access to more information than ever and a habit of jumping the gun, indie films jockeying for buzz to land their distribution deals, and an industry that's coming off what's been widely perceived as a particularly lousy summer at the movies. There's no faster way of putting the summer behind you than discussing plans for the holidays. I guess it's just another sign of our impatient times, along with the Halloween candy on sale at the Safeway and the GOP freak-out over Tea Party primary winners. I'm guilty of encouraging this too, in my own way, as I regularly scour the entertainment blogs for early reviews, and like making up lists of titles to watch out for.

But do I have any thoughts on whether Annette Bening or Natalie Portman is going to take home the Best Actress trophy next year? In fact, I do.

Never count out Helen Mirren, ladies. "The Tempest" FTW!