I write this post very tentatively, because I don't have a lot of data points yet. Originally, I intended to write a post about the mild superhero film slump we saw in February and March, with the latest "Ant-man" and "Shazam!" films taking a bath. Instead, I realized that the trend I should be focusing on is the quiet success of several smaller films, especially a string of hits enjoyed by Universal. This year they've had "M3GAN," "Knock at the Cabin," and "Cocaine Bear," which were all small, but decent hits at the box office. And this is in spite of Universal's much shorter theatrical window that put "Knock at the Cabin" on VOD three weeks after the theater premiere date.
Also consider the sleeper success of films like "A Man Named Otto" and "80 for Brady," both gentle comedies aimed at older audiences. Neither cost much, and they didn't make much, but it was enough to turn a profit. A notably young and diverse audience also made "Creed III" a hit. Sure, it's a franchise film, but it's a sports drama that reportedly only cost $75 million. Horror films have always had a dependable audience, and this year they came out for "M3GAN" and "Scream VI." Other smaller budget projects like the thriller "Missing," the action film "Plane," and the faith based "Jesus Revolution" have also made an impact on the box office. Maybe streaming and the pandemic haven't killed off the mid-budget theatrical release quite yet. "Ant-man" still made more than most of these films combined, but the playing field is looking less lopsided than it has in years.
I love the convenience of having more films premiering on streaming services and VOD, but it's clearly not good for the films in question or the theaters, which were scrambling for content for much of 2022. "Catherine Called Birdy," "Matilda the Musical," and many of my other recent favorites went under the radar because they were streaming exclusives, and the streaming services have shown over and over again that their marketing efforts are very hit-or-miss. There was a lot of uncertainty over whether audiences would show up to theaters in the wake of the pandemic, and some pointed to the overwhelming success of movies like "Top Gun: Maverick" last year as proof that the demand is still there for great movies. However, the unfortunately titled Variety article "Could Mediocre Movies Save Movie Theaters?" points out that the demand is still there for merely okay movies too, and that's even more heartening. It suggests that casual moviegoing, rather than event-movie-driven moviegoing, is still going to be a thing.
And while we're on the subject of event movies, my armchair movie mogul theory of the week is that superhero movies have become so numerous and so commonplace that most of them no longer qualify as event movies in the minds of the public. Disney overloaded Disney+ with blah MCU content over the past two years, and is now trying to space things out and give individual offerings more breathing space. As for the DCEU, it's more complicated, but "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" being such a bust had less to do with the quality of the film and more to do with dull marketing and most people having finally lost patience with the franchise - which is all set to be rebooted soon anyway. I suspect that the low ebb is only temporary, but we're not going to see superhero movies dominating the box office again like they did in the past.
I confess that I've largely fallen out of the habit of theatergoing. The last movie I watched in a physical movie theater was "Babylon," and I'm not planning further trips until "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" hit the screens. However, this is mostly because theatergoing has been a social activity for me, and my social life is only starting to recover from the pandemic. The prospect of going to a theater to see the latest "Magic Mike" or "Creed" movie by myself is frankly pretty depressing. Fortunately, this doesn't seem to be a problem most audiences are having. And that's great, because I do hope to get back into the groove of theatergoing some day. And I want the movie theaters to be alive and well when I do.
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