Well, the summer movie season is tentatively on, so I'm pulling out this feature for the first time since 2019. Following the rules of the Summer Movie Pool, I'm going to predict the top ten domestic box office grossers of the summer. It's not about which movies are the best or the most deserving, but which ones simply bring in the most cold hard cash, and the math has changed considerably thanks to COVID. I am notoriously bad at this, but the pickings are slimmer this year, so I think my chances are pretty good. Anything released between May 1st and Labor Day is fair game. Here we go.
1. Thor: Love and Thunder - Of the two Marvel movies being released this summer, I think "Thor" has the edge. Taika Waititi is back in the director's chair, Thor is one of the most familiar and loveable Marvel heroes, and this has all the earmarks of a fun action-comedy. That means it'll be perfect summer movie material. I think "Love and Thunder" being released later in the summer, when COVID cases should be at their lowest ebb, should also work out in its favor.
2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - That said, "Doctor Strange" is certainly in the running for the top spot. Maybe by May, the omicron wave will have receded enough that people are more willing to go to theaters. It'll be coming after a five month gap in Marvel films, which might make a difference. Strange's supporting role in the last "Spider-man" film might give his star a boost. Still, I just don't see this film being the crowd-pleaser that "Thor" likely will be.
3. Top Gun: Maverick - Tom Cruise in an action movie still has the ability to draw crowds, and I think that Paramount will have the resources to get everyone's attention on this. Remember, this is one of the last holdovers from 2020, and Paramount has delayed it multiple times in order to protect their investment. With the filmmakers involved, I seriously doubt that the movie will actually be worth watching in theaters, but I'm sure that it'll make a lot of money regardless.
4. Lightyear - This isn't quite "Toy Story 5," but it looks close enough that it'll probably attract existing fans who are curious about a different version of Buzz Lightyear. PIXAR's first film back in theaters after three features sent straight to Disney+ means there's a lot riding on this release. Animated films have had mixed success during the pandemic, and I think that this one has the best chance because it has considerable crossover appeal with older, nostalgic audiences.
5. DC League of Super Pets - With "Black Adam" pushed back to October, this is all the DC superhero action we're going to see this summer. However, I think even being superhero adjacent is going to give this one some points. The trailer is utterly adorable, way more appealing than any other animated film on the schedule. However, with a title this convoluted and characters that nobody has seen before, I figure that it's not going to make as big as splash as some of the other titles.
6. Jurassic World: Dominion - Colin Trevorrow is back, and this franchise feels like it's running on fumes, but this movie is going to make plenty of money simply because there aren't that many blockbusters getting theatrical releases this year. Several cast members from the original "Jurassic Park" are slated to appear, which should make this easy to sell based on nostalgia, and the premise of dinosaurs living with humans being normalized might yield some original things - though I doubt it.
7. Minions: The Rise of Gru - So, the last "Despicable Me" film came out in 2017, and "The Rise of Gru" is technically the sequel to the "Minions" spinoff, which came out in 2015. Then again, we're also getting a "Puss in Boots" sequel in 2022, so this isn't even the most egregious sequel this year. I don't understand the appeal of this franchise, but historically it has made money, so the latest installment is on the list. But if it's trounced by "DC League of the Super-Pets," I won't be surprised.
8. The Black Phone - Now, we're finally getting to some of the more interesting titles. Horror movies have been doing okay during the pandemic, and the most promising one on the horizon is this adaptation of a Joe HIll short story, from the guys who made "Sinister" and the first "Doctor Strange." It was originally supposed to be a January release, but was moved to summer based on good audience responses. That signals to me that this is a pretty good bet for a sleeper horror hit.
9. Nope - And then there's Jordan Peele's latest horror film, which we don't know much about, but it looks like it's going to be another genre picture with a great cast. Mentally, I've been categorizing this as something in the same neighborhood as M. Night Shyamalan's "Old," which had a very mixed reception but did make a healthy amount at the box office regardless. I'm willing to bet that "Nope," with its pedigree, will do a bit better.
10. Bullet Train - Finally, we have David Leitch's latest film, which is essentially five assassins on a bullet train. Brad Pitt will star with Sandra Bullock showing up in a supporting role (an inverse of "The Lost City" situation). Columbia is clearly hoping for an action movie similar to Leitch's "John Wick." I worry that the optics may skew too much toward older viewers, and as we all knew, nothing for older audiences made money last year.
Wild Cards (for extra points if one of them does make it into the top ten)
The Bob's Burgers Movie
The Man From Toronto
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