Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The Summer Movie Wager Update

Now that summer movie season is over, let's have a look at the aftermath.  So here are my predictions for the 2019 summer box office from back in April:

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu
3. Hobbs and Shaw 4. The Lion King 5. Spider-man: Far From Home 6. Toy Story 4 7. The Secret Life of Pets 2 8. Godzilla: King of the Monsters 9. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum 10. Aladdin

Wild Cards:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Men in Black: International
Rocketman

And here's the actual top 10 films of summer 2019:

1. Avengers: Endgame 2. The Lion King
3. Toy Story 4 4. Spider-Man: Far from Home 5. Aladdin 6. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum 7. Hobbs and Shaw 8. The Secret Life of Pets 2 9. Detective Pikachu 10. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood


That gives me a grand total of 40 points.  "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" passing "Godzilla" in the end cost me an extra six points.  Still, this was not my worst showing by far. I managed to get nearly every major title somewhere on the list, only missing the Tarantino.  There were no "Ted 2" level blunders. However, there were also no "Straight Out of Compton" or "Girls Trip" level surprises either, which is a little disappointing.  2019 turned out to be a pretty predictable year.  

My biggest mistake was spreading out the Disney releases throughout my list, figuring that audiences weren't possibly going to show up to all of them.  Well, I was wrong. The top five are literally all Disney movies, if you count "Spider-man." "Aladdin," which I thought looked very promising in spite of the negative attention around the early promotional efforts, exceeded expectations.  However, I chickened out and stuck it at the bottom of the list, expecting it to perform more like past Disney flops "Prince of Persia" or "The Lone Ranger." 

Thanks to the Disney dominance, the other family films took big hits, notably "Detective Pikachu," "UglyDolls," "Angry Birds 2," and "Secret Life of Pets 2."  I wonder if any of them are going to be seeing continuations. "Pikachu" and "Secret Life of Pets" were profitable, but not nearly as much as their studios were hoping.  No comedies broke out like we've seen in the past, though "Yesterday" and "Good Boys" had unexpectedly strong showings. "Booksmart" and "Long Shot" had some good press, but failed to break out.  Indie films in general had a terrible season, with only "The Farewell" getting much attention.  

The big R-rated action film this year was "John Wick," which I expected to exceed the box office of the prior installments.  Just not by this much. I expect that we'll see several more entries in the series now, since we're officially in blockbuster territory.  "Hobbs & Shaw" feels like it underperformed, but it made plenty of money, especially overseas. It's important to remember that it's a "Fast & Furious" spinoff and not a proper sequel, so it shouldn't be held to the same standard.  For a Rock vehicle it did pretty well. For a Staham vehicle, it was fantastic. I guess "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" also fits into this category, bringing in the biggest box office of Quentin Tarantino's career despite some mixed reactions.     

Horror had some hits, though they were often under the radar.  Chucky and Annabelle got little traction, but "Crawl," "Ready or Not," and "Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark" made decent profits on smaller budgets.  "Midsommar" did too, but wasn't in the same ballpark as Ari Aster's previous film, "Hereditary." The 800 pound gorilla, of course, is "IT: Chapter 2," which Warners is wisely keeping in September, but I can't help wondering how it would have fared in July or August.  

Finally, we all knew "Dark Phoenix" was going to bomb, and it did.  This will be the end of the Fox "X-men" franchise, as "New Mutants" is being reworked to be a standalone feature.  I suspect that this is also the end of "MIB," unless Sony can lure Will Smith back for a direct sequel.       

Next summer should be more interesting, with Disney's much weaker slate, a big selection of non-franchise films, and the return of Christopher Nolan and Tom Cruise.  Until next time.  
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