The May Box Office Massacre

Summer of 2012 was supposed to restore the fortunes of Hollywood after in rough financial times, giving them a chance to recoup losses on several costly flops with some tried and tested franchises like "Batman," "The Avengers," and "Spider-man." The year so far had been very encouraging, with box office receipts up across the board through winter and early spring. March was especially bright spot with "The Hunger Games" and "The Lorax." Then came a sluggish April, down 48% from last year, and then May, where nearly every major release has underperformed. The one big exception of course is "The Avengers," which has dominated the scene so totally, that it accounts for fully half of the total box office receipts for the month so far.

There has been a lot of press about the astonishing performance of "Avengers," which has been climbing the all time box office charts and setting speed records left and right. It's currently at $523,563,000 domestic, and fourth on the highest grossing pictures list after "The Dark Knight," which it should surpass within a week or so. However, you probably haven't heard nearly as much about the disappointing returns of May's other major releases. Warner Brothers' "Dark Shadows," which opened on May 11th, has recouped $64 million domestic on a $150 million budget. Universal's "Battleship," which opened May 18th, has so far earned $47 million on a $200 million budget. And then there's this past weekend's "MIB3," which opened to a respectable $70 million, but it's rumored that the film cost Columbia over $300 million due to delays in production, and it's not expected to make all of that back domestically. When you factor in foreign numbers, all of these films will probably make enough to cover their production budgets, but by Hollywood accounting, that's not going to be enough to keep their respective studios from sustaining some major losses.

There's been the usual finger-pointing and blame-heaping. Skyrocketing budgets have taken a lot of heat, especially the expensive special effects for "Dark Shadows" and "Battlefield," two totally untested would-be franchises that were of limited appeal in hindsight. "MIB 3" has been called a runaway production, with lots of rumors in the air about mismanagement behind the scenes. The Wrap recently posited that the overwhelming success of "The Avengers" was crowding other films out of the marketplace. Instead of its success being a "rising tide" that "lifts all boats," as similar films had been historically, "Avengers" was stealing away potential audiences from its competitors. I have to wonder if the "rising tide" effect did occur, and whether the other films may have actually performed worse without the presence of "The Avengers." It's hard to see how "Avengers" and "Dark Shadows" have much of an audience in common, or how two weeks wouldn't have been enough time to turn the public's interest to another big event film, like "Battleship."

What I find the most troubling is that we only have two films in the entire month of May that are going to break $100 million at the box office, "Avengers" and "MIB 3." Last year we had five: "The Hangover Part II," "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides," "Thor," "Bridesmaids," and "Kung Fu Panda 2," which was considered a disappointment for only pulling in $165 million in total. 2010 had three: "Iron Man 2," "Shrek Forever After," and "Robin Hood," and none of the other major releases fell under $90 million. This year's misses are pretty abject failures by comparison, and suggest that Hollywood was really out of touch with the public on these projects. "Battleship" enjoyed a massive marketing campaign, but couldn't escape bad reviews and incredulous mockery over its board game origins. "Dark Shadows" was anticipated by some Johnny Depp and Tim Burton fans, myself included, but enjoyed a far more humble reception than its $150 million budget could justify.

Looking ahead to next year, the offerings look more solid. We'll have "Iron Man 3," another "Star Trek," another "Hangover," and another "Fast and Furious." Original projects like "The Identity Thief," "Leaf men," "The Lone Ranger," and "Pixels," also look a lot more promising than the likes of "Battleship." I'm sure that there are going to be more failures and disappointments ahead, but hopefully not on this level again. As we've seen in recent months, the studios are becoming more cost-conscious, cancelling or reworking many expensive projects. And we can all rest easy that Universal won't be making any more expensive movies based on board games for the foreseeable future.
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