Saturday, December 5, 2015

The Remake Rodeo

The announcement of an impending remake of Christopher Nolan's 2000 film "Memento" seems to have inspired some strong anti-remake feelings among film-lovers.  I can't blame them.  I mean, "Memento" is such a conceptually unique film, and executed so well that it's hard to imagine that anybody could successfully do another take on it without coming off as a retread. Not to mention that it's a relatively recent film - most of the properties getting remade at the moment are from the mid-90s, to take advantage of Millennial nostalgia.  As always, there's nothing inherently wrong with remakes, but there are certain expectations that they need to overcome, and a "Memento" remake would have daunting ones.

And I suppose it's as good a time as any to step back and take a look at how reboots and remakes have been doing lately.  2015 has four of note: "Cinderella," "Poltergeist," "Vacation," and the upcoming "Point Break," which is being released as Christmas counterprogramming and will likely be ignored and swept under the rug very quickly.  Frankly, I'm tempted not to count "Cinderella" since there have been several movies with the same source material, but the Kenneth Branagh version makes so many references to the 1950 Disney animated version, it's impossible to deny its roots.  Anyway, it's the best reviewed and best received of the bunch, and has made about half a billion dollars worldwide at the time of writing.  We can expect many more Disney live-action remakes to come.  "Poltergeist" and "Vacation" both got middling reviews and while neither was an outright bomb, they didn't make much at the box office either.  More importantly, they were discussed among hardcore movie fans for only a few brief days before being almost instantly forgotten.

This seems like very little to draw any conclusions from, so let's go back to 2014.  There were more remakes that year: "Robocop," "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles," "Left Behind," "Annie," and "The Gambler."  "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" made about the same amount as "Cinderella," and has a sequel in the works for next year.  Among the rest, "Annie" didn't do too badly, but "The Gambler" and "Left Behind" hardly made any impression at all, ignored by audiences despite having Mark Wahlberg and Nicolas Cage starring in them respectively.  "Robocop" was a more expensive flop that generated some critical discussions, but only tepid interest.  The best thing you could say about it is that thanks to the efforts of director José Padilha, it's not as bad as it could have been. Go back further to 2013, and you have the remakes of "Evil Dead," Carrie," and "Oldboy."  Oh, right.  There were remakes of "Evil Dead," Carrie," and "Oldboy," weren't they?

The pattern should be evident.  When films are remade from other films these days, they tend to be fairly cheap, uninspired affairs that sometimes make a little money, but are quickly forgotten and rarely affect people's memories of the originals.  They're low risk films greenlit by risk-averse executives, and rarely attract any significant talent or aspire to any major ambitions.  The big exception appears to be children's films, which the studios are more comfortable converting into bigger, riskier tentpole pictures, and these tend to reap larger rewards.  Maybe it's because the audiences are less discerning, or the material is easier to reinterpret. I also want to point out a few outliers, Ben Stiller's "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty" and Pete Travis's "Dredd" which shared source material with previous films, but I don't think are technically remakes.  Neither made much money, but they did win over some vocal fans by going off in completely different directions from their predecessors.

So keep that in mind about the reboots and remakes that are coming up in 2016: Jon Favreau's live-action "The Jungle Book," Paul Feig's gender-flipped "Ghostbusters," Timur Bekmambetov's "Ben-Hur," David Lowery's "Pete's Dragon," Antoine Fuqua's "The Magnificent Seven," and a "Jumanji" remake, which we know almost nothing about, but it's slated for a Christmas Day opening.  Without even seeing a frame of these films, I already have a pretty good idea which ones are going to share the fate of the "Carrie" reboot and which might have a shot at being the next "Cinderella."  There are some interesting question marks, though, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that one or more of the iffy-looking ones will surprise me.
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Friday, December 4, 2015

The Return of Blockbuster Fatigue

The 2015 box office has been a year of monumental highs and dispiriting lows, the year that "Jurassic World" massively exceeded expectations, and "Fantastic Four" crashed and burned.  This was predicted to be a big year long in advance, with so many big franchise titles on the schedule.  Summer went as expected, with the major tentpoles like "Avengers" and "Furious 7" drawing the expected crowds.  Fall, however, has been a different matter.  Attendance has been off, leading to the worst October since 2007.  Prestige pictures have been noticeably sluggish, with few daring to expand after the high profile failure of "Steve Jobs."  What's really been worrying is that the two big November tentpoles, "Spectre" and "Mocking Jay Part 2" have both been underperforming.  They'll both certainly make money, but not nearly as much money as the studios were hoping for.

Some industry watchers have been pointing to "blockbuster fatigue" as a potential culprit.  Remember blockbuster fatigue?  The summer of 2013 was besieged by costly flops like "The Lone Ranger," "After Earth," "White House Down," and "R.I.P.D," leading some to conclude that the summer movie slate was overcrowded with too many big event pictures.  Critics have been warning since at least 2008 that there aren't enough audience dollars to go around, including Steven Spielberg, who speculated that the whole industry might implode if too many flops happened in the same season.  There have been enough hits to allay those fears over the last two years, but the hits appear to be cannibalizing the business for the more modest performers, leading to more disappointments.  "The Martian," a sizable but not exceptional hit, made almost three times what anything else released in October did.  Another possible factor is the industry's insistence that all prestige pictures be released in the fall, resulting in a log jam of well-reviewed Oscar contenders all going after the same audience.

And that's a continuing worry with "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" still ahead of us, which is already breaking presale records and may lead to the biggest box office take of all time.  I worry that filmgoers won't come out for anything else, meaning more Oscar hopefuls and modest midrange films like "Room" and "Brooklyn" go unseen.  And  that counterprogramming choices like the Tina Fey and Amy Poehler comedy "Sisters" simply won't get greenlighted the next time around.  Moreover, I'm concerned that the "Star Wars" juggernaut will end up negatively impacting the 2016 box office, which is already predicted to be a slower one with fewer highly anticipated sequel films and more like "Warcraft" and "Deadpool," which studios are hoping will start franchises.  These are the riskier pictures that tend to become the biggest flops.  If the business of movies is about creating anticipation for these big blockbusters, it's going to be rough going for a while after "Star Wars."

Honestly, thinking back on Spielberg's remarks, 2016 looks like a pretty good candidate for the potential industry implosion. It's absolutely rife with iffy-looking projects like David Yates' "Tarzan," and Guy Ritchie's "King Arthur," plus some really desperate sequels like "The Huntsman: Winter's War," "Alice Through the Looking Glass" and the incredibly late "Independence Day: Resurgence."  I have no idea if audiences are going to be receptive to a "Harry Potter" spinoff or the female-led "Ghostbusters."  Sure, the big superhero films are all going to make money, but I'm betting that we're going to see a few of the smaller ones stumble this year.  And even if the industry manages to weather a bad 2016, can they weather multiple years like it?  

Finally, though it's not going to happen in 2016 or 2017, I now think that it's inevitable that we're going to see the lucrative Disney film franchises slow down.  A "Star Wars" film every year isn't going to be sustainable in the long run.  The Marvel Phase Two movies made gobs of money, but I only thought two of the six were really worth the price of admission.  I doubt that Phase Three is going to be much better, and Marvel is going to have to negotiate some tricky waters after that, with many of their original sub-franchises hitting their logical endpoints.  Frankly, I'm not going to be too sad to see it all end - I'm starting to get awfully tired of the same old superhero schtick.

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Thursday, December 3, 2015

"Mistress America" is Familiar Farce

Noah Baumbach may have directed and co-written "Mistress America," but it's a Greta Gerwig film.  Here, Gerwig is playing another variation on the familiar Millennial free-spirit we met in Baumbach's "Frances Ha," Daryl Wein's "Lola Versus," and Whit Stillman's "Damsels in Distress."  And she does it so well that I can't say I really mind that we've seen this all before.  We have plenty of bigger stars making movies with the same plots over and over, with only a fraction of the charm.  At the same time, I can't help noticing that the formula is really starting to show.

The main character in "Mistress America" is actually Tracy (Lola Kirke), an incoming freshman at Barnard College who is having a difficult adjustment.  She isn't accepted to the school's prestigious student publication, stymieing her plans to become a writer .  Her fellow reject, Dylan (Michael Chernus), is the first person at college she really connects with, but then he quickly becomes attached to Nicolette (Jasmine Cephas Jones), who proves to be a hostile and jealous girlfriend.  Tracy's mother (Kathryn Erbe), who will soon be getting remarried, suggests that Tracy get to know her soon-to-be sister, Brooke (Greta Gerwig), who lives nearby in Manhattan.  Brooke turns out to be a young woman of big ideas, lively creativity, slight means, and endless, verbose discourse.  Tracy becomes fascinated with her and is swept up in Brooke's dreams of opening a local restaurant, while surreptitiously chronicling Brooke's life for her next story.

The high point of the film is an extended sequence in the second half where Tracy, Dylan, and Nicolette accompany Brooke out to the suburbs to try and persuade Brooke's ex-boyfriend Tony (Matthew Shear) and ex-friend turned mortal nemesis Mamie-Claire (Heather Lind), to loan her money.  It's a fabulous piece of farce and more than justifies the rest of the movie existing, but it also highlighted for me how cobbled together "Mistress America" feels from previous films.  Tracy's woes at Barnard are well-observed and fairly well-grounded, but never examined in much depth and feel a bit tacked on.  Brooke operates on such a different wavelength, when she appears the whole film becomes more absurdist and freewheeling.  Then, when Mamie-Claire and Tony enter the picture, suddenly the film shifts gears again and becomes a more formally structured kind of comedy.  The humor and tone aren't always consistent from one scene to the next, and there are all sorts of loose ends and under-developed characters - Nicolette seems to have been borrowed wholesale from "Damsels in Distress."  Then there's Tracy's narration, via her short story, which is awfully self-aware and leaned on very heavily.  

The performances won me over, though.  Lola Kirke is excellent as Tracy.  The actress seemed familiar, but this is the first substantial thing I've seen her in, and I hope she goes on to bigger and better things.  I also liked Michael Chernus, who got enough time to make scruffy Dylan more memorable than similar characters I've encountered in other Baumbach and Stillman films.  Heather Lind and Matthew Shear play the most out and out comedic parts, and leave a big impression despite limited screen time.  As for Brooke, she's definitely not Frances or Lola or Violet, but comes off as almost a parody of those past roles, slightly too over-the-top to be real.  Gerwig's performance is very entertaining, but I have to conclude that just didn't find Brooke as convincing as she probably should have been.  Her repartee is just a little too glib, and she repeats signature phrases a few times too many.

I expect that Baumbach and Gerwig will collaborate again in the future, but I'm a little worried how many of these films about being shallow, immature and self-aggrandizing in New York they're going to keep making, especially as Gerwig's hit her thirties and "Girls" is wearing out its welcome on HBO.  "Mistress America" was a fun watch, but I suspect it's more fun if you haven't seen the other recent Greta Gerwig films, and that's not a good sign.  Now, Gerwig is terribly talented, and Baumbach just hit a career best with "While We're Young."  These two are very good at singing the same old song, but I think it's high time that they got a new one.
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Wednesday, December 2, 2015

My Favorite Kenji Mizoguchi Movie

The Japanese jidaigeki films, the costume dramas set in the country's eventful past, are largely associated with tales of battling samurai and assassins in the west.  However director Kenji Mizoguchi, whose filmography is full of jidaigeki, was far more interested in the women of these bygone days.  He often used their stories to highlight social and cultural injustices, to explore the more painful aspects of Japan's past, and to shed light on forgotten figures from history.  His heroines were mostly tragic, often lowly prostitutes and geishas, but their stories were epic and enthralling.  My favorite of them is the history of a fallen woman in "The Life of Oharu."

Oharu (Kinuyo Tanaka) is initially a noble woman, the daughter of a samurai, Shinzaemon (Ichiro Sugai).  However, when she is courted by a lower-rank page Katsunosuke (Toshiro Mifune), their affair ends in disaster.  Katsunosuke is executed and Oharu's family banished and disgraced.  Oharu is then sent from one position to the next, first becoming the mistress of a daimyo, then a failed geisha, then the servant of a jealous woman, then the wife of an artisan, and then a nun.  Each time money troubles, unforeseen tragedy, or injustice require her to move further down the social ladder, bringing more shame upon Oharu and her family.  Her past constantly hounds her, ruining her chances for happiness.  By the end of her journey she has acquired a reputation for being an immoral and wicked woman.  She is scolded for her choices, but it's far from clear if Oharu really had much of a choice about the course of her life at all.

The strict social hierarchy determines everything in Oharu's world, and she keeps running afoul of it despite her best efforts.  The slights she commits seem so small, and her struggles for self-determination seem perfectly reasonable, but the consequences for non-conformity meted out by the implacable social institutions of the time are dire.  Mizoguchi paints his heroine as an entirely sympathetic figure, a victim of terrible misfortune and the cruelties of others.  A great portion of the responsibility for Oharu's fate is placed on her father, who views Oharu as little more than a source of income, and proves difficult to cut ties with.  This mirrors events from Mizoguchi's own life, as his father sold his older sister into servitude at a geisha house when Mizoguchi was a child, an act which profoundly affected the director's worldview.  While the story of Oharu is often lurid and melodramatic, Mizoguchi keeps the focus on her attempts to endure, her moments of personal and spiritual transcendence in the face of so much adversity.

Mizoguchi is generally characterized as the most poetic and contemplative of his contemporaries, with his long, meditative tracking shots and famous "once scene, one shot" style, that avoids close-ups, often keeping his characters at a distance.  He was also reputedly a fanatic about detail and historical accuracy, particularly in his recreations of period environments.  In "Oharu," I particularly love one of the closing scenes where she tries to glimpse a loved one from afar, the composition emphasizing the impossible social chasm that now exists between them.  There are also the various tragicomic episodes where Oharu keeps losing position after position in the different households she's sent to.  This allows Mizoguchi to be examine the pettiness and hypocrisies of both the highborn and the low, from the nobles to the nuns and everyone in between.  Oharu's revenge against a bad-tempered, balding mistress is a deliciously funny moment in film where levity is rare.

Oharu is played by Kinuyo Tanaka, Mizoguchi's most famous leading lady who appeared in the majority of his films and would later go on to direct a few of her own.  From tender youth to decrepit old age, Tanaka imbues Oharu with great dignity and passion, and a sense of steely determination even at her lowest point.  She's my favorite of Mizoguchi's tragic women because she yearns so stubbornly for what she dsires, heedless of propriety, to the very end.  And because she never gives in to despair, in my view she walks away at the finale with a strong personal victory in spite of all that she's lost.

Kenji Mizoguchi - What I've Seen

The Story of the Last Chrysanthemums (1939)
The 47 Ronin (1941)
Utamaro and His Five Women (1947)
Miss Oyu (1951)
The Life of Oharu (1952)
Ugetsu (1953)
A Geisha (1953)
Sansho the Bailiff (1954)
The Crucified Lovers (1954)
Princess Yang Kwei-Fei (1955)
Tales of the Taira Clan (1955)
Street of Shame (1956)
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Tuesday, December 1, 2015

My Top Ten "Venture Bros." Episodes

I've long counted myself as a fan of "The Venture Bros.," but I've resisted doing one of these lists because I wasn't around for the first season.  However, going over the episode lists today, I realized that I have seen most of the missing episodes via reruns.  And as we continue the long, long wait for season six, it's a good time to look back on the series' high points.  Team Venture has been with us for over a decade now, and gone to some very strange and interesting places.  As always, picks are unranked and ordered by airdate below, and I will totally cheat and count multi-parters as single entries.  Minor spoilers ahead.  Go Team Venture!

"Dia de Los Dangerous!" - I'm not clear when exactly I first saw the "Venture" premiere, but it always stuck with me because of how neatly it sets up all the major characters and relationships.  Early on I was a big fan of the Monarch and Dr. Girlfriend, who despite their oddities have a very healthy and warm relationship both at home and in the field. This is also a good example of the show's formula, which would gradually be subverted as time went on: bodyguard Brock has to protect the cheerfully daft Venture boys, Hank and Dean, and their selfish super-scientist father Doc "Rusty" Venture from myriad comic book dangers.  Many fans watched the show simply to see Brock beat people up, which he does here with great gusto.

"Are You There, God? It's Me, Dean" - More hijinks aboard the Cocoon after the Monarch manages to abduct the whole Venture family.  Dean, however, has sustained an embarrassing injury which requires medical attention, so an uneasy truce is called while this is sorted out.  We switch back and forth from that point between Dean's humiliating surgery and the Monarch's birthday showdown with Brock Samson.  While not the most eventful episode, it's one of the most enjoyably silly ones that gives all of my favorites some time to shine.  I always liked the episodes with the main characters hanging out and dealing with personal issues better than the crazier, more conceptual episodes full of genre parodies.  However...

"Escape to the House of Mummies Part II" - There's something to be said for the ambitious conceptual episodes, especially when they're as well done as this.  We start in the middle of a wild time-traveling adventure, where Team Venture is stuck in a pyramid full of booby traps.  Doc manages to escape and goes to find help, but gets sidetracked by a bet with Dr. Orpheus.  We get to spend some time following Orpheus on a trip to a hell dimension to confer with his master (via poor Triana's closet), while Doc reminisces and does bad science with Pete and Billy.  Occasionally we also cut back to Brock and the boys, whose adventure just keeps getting weirder and wilder, culminating in a priceless "Star Wars" reference.

"Guess Who's Coming to State Dinner?" - And then there was the time that the ghost of Abraham Lincoln recruited Hank and Dean to help him foil a "Manchurian Candidate" style assassination attempt on the president.  This one has my vote for the funniest episode - it has the best one-liners, bad puns galore, and the uncomfortable innuendoes are off the charts.  Brock trying to fend off Mrs. Manstrong's advances is one of my favorite bits in the whole show.  I love how all the authority figures are just terrible, and even Honest Abe is kind of a jerk. The second season was definitely my favorite, where the show's sensibilities fully gelled and the creators got much more comfortable lobbing absurdities at us.  Speaking of which...

"I Know Why the Caged Bird Kills" - How did they ever came up with a character as dementedly wonderful as Dr. Henry Killinger with his Magic Murder Bag?  I love the slow reveal here, where it turns out that the sinister newcomer who finagles his way into the Monarch's confidence really is there to help him, despite the reasonable suspicions of his henchmen and Dr. Girlfriend.  The Ventures tangling with loony Myra Brandish is fun, and Orpheus visiting his master is always a treat, but really I love this episode for the domestic drama at the Cocoon base.  Slowly but surely, the Monarch gang was revealed to be a family unit as well as an archvillain outfit - and likely a much more functional family unit than the Ventures.

"Showdown at Cremation Creek" - I love a good wedding, especially when there are supervillains, an extended "Never-Ending Story" parody, and David Bowie in the mix.  This two-part finale to the second season was the ultimate expression of the show's love of comic-book carnage and '70s-'80s popular music as the Monarch and Dr. Fiancee take an eventful plunge into matrimony together at last.  The epic battle between the Guild of Calamitous Intent and the Monarch "murderflies" is one for the ages, especially with Brock in command.  And once I figured out who Klaus Nomi was, it made perfect sense that he and Iggy Pop have superpowers in this universe.  And the cliffhanger ending, which I'm not sure was actually ever fully resolved, was perfect.

"The Buddy System" - Another fairly low-key outing, where Dr. Venture decides to run a day camp out of the Venture compound, recruiting several of his friends to help.  The Monarch sends in the Moppets to infiltrate, and there's an irritating, mouthy kid named Dermott who riles up Brock.  This episode is best enjoyed by established fans who get to see old favorites like the Ghost Captain and Action Johnny again, and puzzle over a new mystery.  "The Venture Bros." is at its best when it juxtaposes the fantastic with the utterly mundane, and you don't get much more mundane than a safety demonstration, no matter how much the Order of the Triad tries to jazz it up.  Of course, this was also the debut of Dr. Mrs. The Monarch's new costume.  Nothing mundane there.

"Return to Malice" - Henchman 21 becoming a fearsome badass in the wake of Henchman 24's death is one of my favorite developments in the "Venture" series.  Here, he gets to work through a lot of baggage while kidnapping Hank and Dean, and we get to the crux of his obsession.  Meanwhile, this is also a great episode for Sergeant Hatred, who initially wasn't one of my favorite characters, but who I warmed up to quickly.  There's so much wrong with the guy, but he's still terribly sympathetic.  He tries so hard to live up to his new good guy status and his job as bodyguard, but like everyone else on the show, his failures haunt him mercilessly.  Doc and the Monarch's Mrs. also get a rare private moment together, which was sort of oddly sweet.

"Any Which Way But Zeus" - The gladiatorial battles between so many of our favorite sidekick characters is a lot of fun, but this episode is here because it lets Hank confront his father about some long-simmering issues, and reveals that Doc actually does care about both of the boys, even if he expresses it in some pretty unhealthy, twisted ways.  This is one of those conversations that wouldn't have happened in so many other shows, but here it lets Hank put a lot of fears to rest and move on.  And as a result, the show gets to move on too.  This was roughly the point where I realized that "Venture Bros." was never going back to the old formula again, but that was a good thing.  The characters were changing, becoming more nuanced and interesting.

"Operation P.R.O.M." -  The fourth season was when the Venture boys started to grow up and rebel in various ways.  Hank got a great arc culminating in "Everybody Comes to Hank's," but Dean's maturation didn't really kick off until the finale, where Doc attempts to throw the boys their own prom.  With Hank and Dermott's help, Dean finally summons up the nerve to try and win back Triana - and turns into a complete jerk in the process.  There's a lot going on here, with the Monarchs, Molotov, and SPHINX lurking around, Doc hiring prostitutes to be the boys' dates, and everyone trying to figure out what kind of sexual act a "Rusty Venture" is slang for.  Inevitably, everything ends in crushed hopes and giant mutant bugs, which is exactly as it should be.
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Monday, November 30, 2015

On Watching Too Many Movies

"One-movie-a-day" challenges are often tackled by young, neophyte movie fans who are trying to get into film more seriously.  Usually they're paired with some activity like reviewing or blogging about the experience, and tend to last in duration from a month to a year.  I always have to restrain myself from being cynical when I run across some excited college kid thinking that he or she is about to do something exceptional by embarking on one of these challenges.  A movie a day for a year isn't particularly difficult as challenges go.  The average person watches four or five hours of television a day, and the average length of a mainstream American film is only a little north of two hours.  And if you get into the habit, it can be very hard to stop.

A movie a day is perfectly doable for anyone who has the time and inclination, especially now that we have Netflix and Amazon and iTunes, which allow almost instantaneous access to massive online catalogs of movies.  And despite being so busy these days that I often can only watch half a movie at a time, I'm over two hundred films for the year so far.  In my more intense Miss Media Junkie years of yore, that number would easily be doubled.  My record was 532 movies in my first year out of grad school, where I had no internet and awful television reception in my crummy apartment, but I was only a short walk from the main branch of my city's library.  I was taking home Criterion DVDs ten at a time for a few months.  Not normal or healthy, clearly, but we all have our ways of distracting ourselves during tough times.  Movies were a lot cheaper than drinking.

And a few years before that I had an internship near Washington DC, and had rented a room from a woman with a house in the suburbs.  Again, no internet, limited access to television, and I only had time to go to see the touristy stuff on weekends because I was reliant on public transportation.  However, I trudged past the doors of a Blockbuster Video store on the way home every night, and eventually paid for a month of their unlimited two-at-a-time rental plan.  I think the cost was $35 and I wound up watching 52 movies that month on my laptop.  I wasn't particularly interested in becoming a movie buff - I just liked movies and had grown up regularly watching an hour or two of television in the evening with my parents before bed.  It felt odd not to have something on.  So that was how I first saw "The Conversation" and "Midnight Cowboy" and "Harold and Maude."  I was back at school a few weeks later, and only watched about thirty movies the rest of the year.

By the way, I'm getting the numbers from an Excel spreadsheet I've kept of all the movies I've watched since 2004.  I've been using Icheckmovies as a backup for the past few years, but the spreadsheet is still my main record.  I started it for fun and just got into the habit of logging a quick one-sentence review and star score after every viewing of a new movie.  I've gotten behind on the recordkeeping a few times over the years, but always caught up again eventually.  I like having it in this format for reference, easily sortable by year or score or even viewing format.  I can pinpoint pretty clearly when I had subscriptions to various rental services, and when I switched from DVDs to online streaming.  I keep thinking that one of these days I'm going to start a new spreadsheet, something better formatted with more information, but I don't know if I ever will.

And somewhere along the way I realized that I had turned into a movie buff, and watching a movie every day or two felt completely normal.  It became a part of my life, and something I don't really question.  It's only when I see my own viewing patterns referred to as a "challenge" by someone that I'm reminded that I really am a media junkie.  Not quite the one I used to be, but still a media junkie.
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Saturday, November 21, 2015

Oscar Season 2015

As usual I haven't seen most of the contenders yet, but the Oscars have always been more about politics than merit, and we're definitely deep into the season at this point. The various critics' circles will start announcing their nominees soon, followed by the guilds and the other major awards organizations. What am I hoping for this year?

Well, it's going to be an interesting race because there aren't a lot of front runners yet and no clear favorites.  Thomas McCarthy's "Spotlight" has been singled out as a possible winner, but it's a quieter picture with a modest campaign so far.  The populist choices are "The Martian," and "Inside Out," but neither seems to have the support for a win.  We've been hearing a lot about what it took to make "The Revenant," but who knows if it's any good or not.  That leaves us with a lot of films from familiar names that sound like safe bets: Todd Haynes' "Carol," David O. Russell's "Joy," Tom Hooper's "The Danish Girl," Quentin Tarantino's "Hateful 8," Danny Boyle's "Steve Jobs," and Steven Spielberg's "Bridge of Spies."  There are also some smaller, more interesting titles from relative newcomers in the mix: John Crowley's "Brooklyn" and Lenny Abrahamson's "Room."  I'm also gunning for longshots "Love & Mercy" and "Mad Max: Fury Road."

Best Actor looks like it's going to be a fight between Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael Fassbender.  I wouldn't mind if either of them won, because they're both due some recognition.  Eddie Redmayne will almost certainly be back for "The Danish Girl," and I'm guessing Johnny Depp for "Black Mass," since he's gotten enough good press for the role.  Tom Hanks, Matt Damon, Bryan Cranston, and Will Smith are all in contention for the last spot.  In the Best Actress race, Brie Larson is our early frontrunner for "Room."  Saoirse Ronan for "Brooklyn," Cate Blanchett for "Carol," and Jennifer Lawrence for "Joy" are also very likely.  The fifth spot is a lot harder because there are so many smaller, actress-led films that tend to fly under he radar but get nominations with a good campaign.  Julianne Moore won with the completely pedestrian "Still Alice," remember.  I'm going to guess that Carey Mulligan swings a nod for "Suffragette."

The supporting categories are a lot harder to gauge, but I'm rooting for Paul Dano and Elizabeth Banks for "Love & Mercy," and Jane Fonda for stealing the show in "Youth."  The ones to beat will be Mark Rylance who seems to have bee the only part of "Bridge of Spies" worth talking about, and Rooney Mara for "Carol."  Who I'd love to see in the Best Supporting category, but who will almost certainly have no shot, is Oscar Isaac for "Ex Machina."  Instead, this is usually where we see token nominations for minority actors, like Idris Elba for "Beasts of No Nation" and Benicio Del Toro for "Sicario," or older favorites like Joan Allen for "Room" and Sylvester Stallone for "Creed."  Who ends up with a nomination could depend largely on which picture picks up momentum as we get closer to the deadline.

For the rest of the categories, a miscellaneous assortment of thoughts: Cinematography is going to see yet another Deakins and Lubezki showdown.  I'm rooting for Deakins, just because Lubezki's already won twice.  Otherwise, this would be a good place to recognize Cary Fukunaga for "Beasts of No Nation," and "Mad Max: Fury Road."  In Documentary, the Amy Winehouse profile "Amy" is the frontrunner, and "Going Clear" is going to have to fight simply secure a nomination.  I'm rooting for "The Look of Silence" personally.

In the Foreign Language category, the only major contender seems to be "Son of Saul" from Hungary.  I'm also curious about Hou Hsiao-Hsien's "The Assassin" and the Icelandic "Rams."  For Animated Film, as much as I loved "Inside Out," I'm rooting for Charlie Kaufman's "Anomalisa" sight unseen, because it would set such a good precedent for this category is something for grown-ups finally won.

And then you have all the wild cards and dark horses, of which there are plenty this year. Will controversy help "Truth"?  What's going on with "By the Sea"?  Is "99 Homes" going to get lost in the shuffle?  What about "Concussion," "Macbeth," The Program," and "The Lobster"?

And what of "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"?
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